🇺🇸 United States — LNG Supply & Storage

Natural Gas Production U.S. dry natural gas production currently stands at ~107.7 Bcf/d, with forecasts pointing to 109.1 Bcf/d in 2026. –

LNG Export Capacity & Volumes LNG exports grew from 0.5 Bcf/d in 2016 to 15.0 Bcf/d in 2025. The EIA’s February 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts U.S. LNG exports to exceed 18.1 Bcf/d by 2027. The U.S. currently holds eight operational LNG export terminals and is the world’s largest LNG exporter, ahead of Australia and Qatar. U.S. Energy Information Administration

Feedgas Demand (Live Operations) As of late January 2026, U.S. LNG feedgas demand averaged approximately 19.3 Bcf/d — up 0.8 Bcf/d week-on-week — with all terminals operating at or near nameplate capacity. This is roughly 5 Bcf/d higher than January 2025 levels. RBN Energy

New Capacity Coming Online Plaquemines LNG (Phase 1) shipped its first cargo in December 2024. Corpus Christi Stage III and Plaquemines Phase 2 began shipping cargoes in early 2025. Golden Pass LNG is expected to ship its first cargo in early 2026. The EIA expects U.S. export capacity to nearly double by 2031 compared to December 2025 levels. U.S. Energy Information Administration

Underground Storage (Most Recent EIA Report) For the week ending February 13, 2026, working gas in underground storage fell 144 Bcf to 2,070 Bcf — sitting 59 Bcf below the same time last year and 123 Bcf below the five-year average. Every major U.S. region posted a net draw. Premier Energy Mgmt

End-of-Season Forecast The EIA’s February Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts U.S. natural gas inventories to end the withdrawal season (late March) at under 1.9 trillion cubic feet — 8% below previous projections. Henry Hub spot prices are forecast to average $4.30/MMBtu in 2026. U.S. Energy Information Administration Winter Storm Fern in January drove what the EIA described as the largest single-week storage withdrawal in the history of the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.

Prices (Late February 2026) April natural gas futures traded in a narrow $2.818–$2.894/MMBtu range in late February, with traders balancing hardy export activity against weakening weather demand and robust supply. Natural Gas Intelligence

🇨🇦 Canada — LNG Supply & Reserves

LNG Canada (First Export Terminal) LNG Canada, located in British Columbia, shipped its first cargo in July 2025 from Train 1. The facility has a combined capacity of 1.84 Bcf/d across two trains and is anticipated to reach full capacity in 2026. A proposed Phase 2 would double capacity to 3.68 Bcf/d. U.S. Energy Information Administration

Feedgas Source & Market Advantage LNG Canada sources feedgas from the Montney Formation in Alberta and British Columbia. Its west coast location reduces shipping times to Asian markets by ~50% compared with U.S. Gulf Coast terminals. U.S. Energy Information Administration

Production Trends Canadian producers set records in 2025, flooding the market with supply. LNG Canada’s ramp-up is expected to absorb roughly 2 Bcf/d of Western Canadian feedgas in early 2026 — approximately 10% of total Western Canada production — which is expected to support benchmark AECO/NOVA prices. Bullish price projections for AECO in 2026 cluster around C$3.20–3.80/GJ. Natural Gas Intelligence

🇲🇽 Mexico — LNG Developments

Mexico has two LNG export projects under construction with a combined 0.6 Bcf/d capacity: Fast LNG Altamira FLNG2 (0.2 Bcf/d, east coast) and Energía Costa Azul (0.4 Bcf/d, west coast). Both source feedgas from the United States. U.S. Energy Information Administration Energía Costa Azul is expected to enter service in spring 2026, and Mexico’s power sector continues to grow with more gas-fired generation units coming online. Natural Gas Intelligence

North American LNG Capacity Trajectory

North American LNG export capacity is on track to grow from 11.4 Bcf/d at the start of 2024 to 28.7 Bcf/d by 2029, if all projects under construction begin operations as planned. North American capacity additions are expected to account for over 50% of total global LNG additions through 2029. U.S. Energy Information Administration

Market Context

The IEA reports that North American natural gas demand increased by an estimated 2.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. Global LNG demand growth is forecast to accelerate to around 2% in 2026 as considerable new LNG supply comes to market and eases market fundamentals. IEA

Key Data Sources:

• U.S. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (release: Feb 26, 2026)
• EIA February 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (Feb 10, 2026)
• EIA “Ten Years of U.S. LNG” analysis (Feb 24, 2026)
• IEA Natural Gas Market Report
• RBN Energy LNG Voyager / NGI Daily Price Index
• EIA Liquefaction Capacity File

European Storage: A Structural Vulnerability

As of February 16, German and EU storage reserves have fallen to record lows — Germany at 23%, France at 23.6%, and the Netherlands at a striking 14.3%, which is essentially “technical gas” that is near-impossible to withdraw. Despite these figures, regulators across most member states insist the situation is under control with no expected shortages before spring. Worldometer

Kpler expects EU-27 storage to exit the 2025–26 winter at around 36% full — but forecasts stocks can recover to 96% by November 2026 if LNG imports hit a record 73.6 Mt across the injection season, a 29% year-on-year increase. World Population Review

The US Has Captured Europe’s Gas Market

In Q3 2025, the United States supplied 59.9% of all EU LNG imports — up 19 percentage points year-on-year — while Russia fell to 12.7% and Qatar to just 6.0%. U.S. Energy Information Administration This is a remarkable transformation: from the beginning of 2022 to June 2025, EU countries spent €117.4 billion on US LNG, €37.5 billion on Russian LNG, and €34.4 billion on Qatari LNG. U.S. Energy Information Administration

The Russia Exit and the Qatar Question

The EU ban on Russian LNG short-term contracts takes effect April 2026, with long-term contracts banned by January 2027. The remaining ~15 bcm/yr of Turkstream pipeline gas must also end by September 2027. The US — with ~55 bcm of new LNG export capacity ramping up in 2025–26 — is expected to fill most of this gap. Natural Gas Intelligence

IEA director Fatih Birol has urged the EU to replace Russian LNG with Qatari supplies from 2027 onward, when Qatar’s North Field expansion projects come online. Qatar’s CEO confirmed NFE will begin production mid-2026, targeting 142 MTPA total capacity by 2030. U.S. Energy Information Administration

The critical strategic tension the dashboard illustrates: the IEA’s preferred Russian replacement (Qatar) is 100% Hormuz-dependent, while Europe’s current dominant supplier (the US) is free of any chokepoint risk — but now comes with its own geopolitical leverage, as evidenced by the $750bn Prestwick trade commitment.