LNG Supply Intelligence Report · March 2026 · Public Data Collation
HORMUZ
VS NORTH AMERICA
Qatar · UAE · Oman — Hormuz-DependentUSA · Canada · Mexico — North American
⚠ GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT: Following the June 2025 Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz — which handles ~22% of global LNG trade — experienced brief disruptions and elevated risk premiums. All Middle East LNG exports must transit this 21-nautical-mile chokepoint with no full pipeline bypass alternative for Qatar, Oman, or most UAE exports. Qatar alone has zero pipeline alternatives for its LNG.
Qatar Current Capacity
77
MTPA (LNG) · ~10.1 Bcf/d
▲ +49M by 2027
UAE Export (ADNOC Das Island)
6
MTPA · ~0.8 Bcf/d
▲ +9.6 MTPA (Ruwais, 2028)
Oman LNG Exports
11.5
MT Exported 2024
▲ +3.8 MTPA Train 4 planned
US LNG Feedgas Demand
19.3
Bcf/d (Jan 2026) · record high
▲ +5 Bcf/d YoY
Canada LNG Canada Train 1
1.84
Bcf/d total capacity (2 trains)
▲ First cargo July 2025
Hormuz — Share of LNG Trade
22%
of global seaborne LNG
▼ Geopolitical risk elevated
CURRENT EXPORT VOLUMES (2024–2025)
Annual LNG Exports by Country · Jan–Sep 2025 (Mt)
Global LNG Market Share · Jan–Sep 2025
Qatar North Field Expansion · Capacity Growth (MTPA)
Hormuz LNG Flows · Top Destinations 2024
North America Capacity Trajectory · Bcf/d
COUNTRY PROFILES
Strait of Hormuz Dependent
🇶🇦 Qatar — Dominant Player
HORMUZ
Current LNG Capacity77 MTPA (~10.1 Bcf/d)
Target Capacity by 2030142 MTPA (~18.7 Bcf/d)
Jan–Sep 2025 Exports61.7 Mt (+5.6% YoY)
Global Market Share (2025)19.5% of seaborne LNG
North Field East ExpansionFirst output mid-2026
Long-term Contracted Volume105 bcm/y under contract
Proved Gas Reserves11% of world total
Alternative Export RouteNONE — 100% Hormuz dependent
Capacity Expansion Progress
77 of 142 MTPA target = 54% to 2030 goal
No Strait Dependency
🇺🇸 United States — World #1
NORTH AM
Dry Gas Production~107.7 Bcf/d (early 2026)
LNG Feedgas (Jan 2026)19.3 Bcf/d (record)
Jan–Sep 2025 Exports79.4 Mt (+22.7% YoY)
Global Market Share (2025)25% of seaborne LNG
Operating Terminals8 LNG export terminals
New Capacity (Golden Pass)First cargo early 2026
Underground Storage2,070 Bcf (Feb 13, 2026)
Storage vs 5-yr Avg−123 Bcf (below avg)
Market Share Progress (target 30% by 2030)
25% of 30% target achieved
🇦🇪 UAE (ADNOC)
HORMUZ
Das Island Capacity6 MTPA
2024 Exports~5.5 Mt
Ruwais LNG (2028)+9.6 MTPA
Total by 2028~15.6 MTPA
Bypass capacityPartial (Fujairah crude only)
🇴🇲 Oman LNG
HORMUZ
Current Capacity10.4 MTPA (3 trains)
2024 Exports11.5 Mt
Train 4 Addition+3.8 MTPA planned
Top MarketsSouth Korea, Japan, Europe
Asia share>90% of cargoes
🇨🇦 Canada LNG
NORTH AM
LNG Canada Capacity1.84 Bcf/d (2 trains)
First CargoJuly 2025
Feedgas SourceMontney Formation, BC/AB
Asia shipping time~50% shorter vs USGC
Phase 2 Target3.68 Bcf/d if approved
STRATEGIC RISK MATRIX
⬛ High Risk
Qatar — Zero Route Alternatives
All ~77 MTPA of Qatar’s LNG must transit the Strait of Hormuz. There is no pipeline or overland alternative. Any closure would immediately affect 19.5% of global seaborne LNG supply and ~105 bcm/y of contracted volumes reaching China, India, South Korea, and Japan.
◧ Medium Risk
UAE — Partial Bypass Only
The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah bypasses Hormuz for crude oil, but LNG from Das Island still transits the Strait. The Ruwais LNG project (9.6 MTPA, 2028) will further increase Hormuz-dependent LNG volumes. Combined bypass covers only ~33% of aggregate Gulf flows.
⬛ High Risk
June 2025 Conflict Precedent
The June 2025 Iran-Israel-US conflict briefly disrupted tanker movements and spiked risk premiums. While Hormuz was not blocked, the event demonstrated the corridor’s strategic fragility and pushed Asian LNG spot prices to multi-month highs within days of the incident beginning.
◻ Low Risk
US — No Chokepoint Exposure
US LNG exports from Gulf Coast (Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Freeport, Cameron, Cove Point) and the new Golden Pass terminal have direct Atlantic/Pacific access with no strategic chokepoint dependencies. The US is now the world’s largest LNG exporter at 25% of seaborne supply.
◻ Low Risk
Canada — Pacific Corridor Advantage
LNG Canada on the BC coast provides direct Pacific access to Asian markets, ~50% faster transit than US Gulf Coast to Japan/Korea. Zero geopolitical chokepoint risk. Montney Formation reserves are among the largest in North America with decades of confirmed supply.
◧ Medium Risk
Supply Glut Risk 2027–2030
With ~360 bcm/y of new global LNG capacity under construction, an oversupply scenario is forecast for 2027+. Qatar’s uncontracted 75% of new capacity (78 bcm/y) and US projects may compete intensely on spot markets, pressuring Henry Hub and JKM benchmark prices.
2025–2030 CAPACITY EXPANSION OUTLOOK
Project
Country
Capacity
Online
Status
Route Risk
North Field East (NFE)
Qatar
+32 MTPA (4 trains)
Mid-2026
▶ Under construction
⚠ 100% Hormuz
Golden Pass LNG (Train 1)
USA
~5.6 MTPA per train
Early 2026
▶ First cargo imminent
✓ No chokepoint
North Field South (NFS)
Qatar
+16 MTPA (2 trains)
2027
◐ Construction
⚠ 100% Hormuz
Ruwais LNG
UAE
9.6 MTPA (2 trains)
Late 2028
◐ FID June 2024, ahead of schedule
⚠ Hormuz dependent
Corpus Christi Stage III
USA
10 MTPA
2025 (online)
✓ Operational
✓ No chokepoint
Oman Train 4
Oman
+3.8 MTPA
2027–28
◐ EPC bidding stage
⚠ Hormuz dependent
LNG Canada Phase 2
Canada
+1.84 Bcf/d
TBD (proposed)
○ Pre-FID
✓ No chokepoint
North Field West (NFW)
Qatar
+16 MTPA (2 trains)
2030
○ FID expected 2026
⚠ 100% Hormuz
The Hormuz Story (Qatar · UAE · Oman)
Approximately 22% of global LNG trade transits the Strait of Hormuz — primarily from Qatar and the UAE — and the June 2025 Iran-Israel-US conflict briefly disrupted tanker movements and elevated risk premiums across global gas markets. RBN Energy
Qatar currently produces about 80 MTPA of LNG (around 20% of global supply) and plans to nearly double capacity by the early 2030s through the North Field East, South, and West projects, adding 64 MTPA from eight mega-trains. Natural Gas Intelligence Qatar’s minister announced in February 2024 that the target is to raise LNG production capacity to 142 MTPA before end of 2030. Global Firepower
The UAE is rapidly advancing its Ruwais LNG project — a low-carbon, electrically-powered facility with two trains totalling 9.6 MTPA — scheduled for 2028, which would more than double its existing output. Oman is also planning a fourth train at Qalhat adding 3.8 MTPA. U.S. Energy Information Administration
The North American Counterpoint
The United States exported 79.4 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2025, a 22.7% year-on-year increase, representing 25% of global seaborne LNG — making it the world’s largest exporter. Natural Gas Intelligence North American LNG export capacity is on track to grow to 28.7 Bcf/d by 2029, with North America accounting for over 50% of all global LNG capacity additions through 2029. U.S. Energy Information Administration
The critical strategic divergence: Qatar has zero bypass alternatives for Hormuz — all LNG must transit the 21-nautical-mile chokepoint — while US and Canadian terminals have direct ocean access with no geopolitical chokepoint exposure whatsoever.